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Newroz vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Newroz
Newroz
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
I. Gbadamosi 79', 45', 3'
Cláudio Maradona 59'
Aymen Hussein 55'
Hussain Jabbar 33'
5/31/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 31Sulaymaniyah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Newroz38%
×Draw28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.23
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 41 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.45
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.12

allows per match

Newroz
1.18
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.02

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
66%
Newroz or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
72%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
62%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
16%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
71%
Newroz 2+ goals
35%
Newroz 3+ goals
13%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
68%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
32%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
53%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.45 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.12 + Newroz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newroz scores more
38%
level
28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
34%

Newroz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
I. Gbadamosi
33'
Hussain Jabbar
45'
I. Gbadamosi
55'
Aymen Hussein
59'
Cláudio Maradona
79'
I. Gbadamosi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Newroz beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4-2 in Iraqi League on May 31, 2024.

Goals: I. Gbadamosi (3', 45', 79'), Hussain Jabbar (33'), Aymen Hussein (55'), Cláudio Maradona (59').

The match was played at Sulaymaniyah Stadium in Sulaymaniyah.