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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2025

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Newroz
Newroz
E. Al Rasheedi 64'
M. Al Subhi 59' (pen)
Neto Acara 45'
2/13/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya46%
×Draw27%
Newroz27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.40
Newroz
1.02

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.58
Newroz
1.29

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.76
Newroz
1.21

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw
73%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Newroz
73%
Draw or Newroz
54%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
22%
Newroz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
75%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
41%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
17%
Newroz 1+ goals
64%
Newroz 2+ goals
27%
Newroz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
62%
Newroz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.58 + Newroz defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Newroz attack 1.29 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
46%
level
27%
Newroz scores more
27%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Neto Acara
59'
M. Al SubhiPenalty
64'
E. Al Rasheedi
Al
Newroz
Wesam Rizik
Manager: Wesam Rizik
J. Tsombos
Manager: J. Tsombos

Match Recap: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Newroz

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Newroz 2-1 in Iraqi League on February 13, 2026.

Goals: Neto Acara (45'), M. Al Subhi (59' pen), E. Al Rasheedi (64').