Newroz 0–3 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Newroz

FT

0 – 3

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

10/15/2021

Iraqi League · Round 4Sulaymaniyah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Newroz32%

×Draw28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewrozExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.28

Newroz

1.12

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.28

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

1.45

creates per match

1.39

1.18

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Newroz

1.45

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.39

allows per match

Newroz

1.18

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Newroz or draw

60%

Newroz or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

72%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

68%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+

13%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals

67%

Newroz 2+ goals

31%

Newroz 3+ goals

10%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

72%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

37%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)

45%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.18 · 76 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.45 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.39 + Newroz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newroz scores more

32%

level

28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

40%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff