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Newells Old Boys vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
L. Montenegro 57'
G. Ortiz 36'
C. Tarragona 25'
B. Domínguez 11'
7/3/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 22Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Newells Old Boys40%
×Draw30%
Gimnasia L.P.30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newells Old Boys
1.15
Gimnasia L.P.
0.95

Newells Old Boys creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Newells Old Boys
1.07
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Newells Old Boys
0.99
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Newells Old Boys-0.21scores less
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newells Old Boys ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Newells Old Boys or draw
70%
Newells Old Boys or Gimnasia L.P.
70%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
60%

Winning margin

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
17%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
68%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
32%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
61%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
25%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
57%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newells Old Boys at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newells Old Boys attack 1.07 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Newells Old Boys defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newells Old Boys scores more
40%
level
30%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
30%

Newells Old Boys at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. AguirreNewells Old BoysNewells Old Boys · F
7.5

Match Events

11'
B. Domínguez↳ C. Tarragona
15'
Nicolas Sanchez
21'
L. Montenegro← I. Gómez
25'
C. Tarragona↳ L. Morales
36'
G. Ortiz
44'
J. Pérez← R. Sordo
45+1'
Ignacio Miramon
46'
A. Bolívar← I. Miramón
46'
A. Napolitano← N. Sánchez
51'
I. Mammini← C. Tarragona
57'
L. Montenegro↳ J. Pérez
66'
Tomás Durso
76'
P. Pérez← B. Pittón
76'
J. Giani← G. Velázquez
76'
F. Mansilla← L. Montenegro
79'
Justo Giani
80'
E. Ramírez← A. Lescano
80'
A. Ramírez← B. Domínguez
90+8'
Marcos Portillo
90+3'
Jorge Recalde

Possession

64%Newells

Shots

16Newells

Pass accuracy

56%Newells

Statistics

NewellsGimnasia
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots13
5Corners6
16Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots13
6On Target5
6Off Target4
4Blocked4
7Inside Box6
9Outside Box7
Passing
64%Possession36%
466Total Passes257
367Accurate Passes162
79%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Newells Old Boys vs Gimnasia L.P.

Newells Old Boys and Gimnasia L.P. drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 3, 2023.

Goals: B. Domínguez (11'), C. Tarragona (25'), G. Ortiz (36'), L. Montenegro (57').

Newells Old Boys controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.