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Gimnasia L.P. vs Newells Old Boys — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
R. Castillo 10'
11/9/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 22Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.34%
×Draw29%
Newells Old Boys36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.08
Newells Old Boys
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Newells Old Boys
1.12

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Newells Old Boys
1.10

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Newells Old Boys-0.27scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Newells Old Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
64%
Gimnasia L.P. or Newells Old Boys
71%
Draw or Newells Old Boys
66%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
14%
Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
66%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
29%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
10%
Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
67%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
31%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
49%
Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Newells Old Boys away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Newells Old Boys attack 1.12 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
34%
level
29%
Newells Old Boys scores more
36%

Newells Old Boys at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
R. CastilloGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · F
7.9

Match Events

10'
R. Castillo↳ J. Pintado
13'
Augusto Max
18'
Ángelo Martino
31'
S. Primante← J. Merlo
47'
Tomás Pérez
63'
D. Sotelo← M. Miljevic
63'
F. González← Á. Martino
65'
T. Jacob← T. Pérez
67'
Leonel VangioniCard upgrade
69'
Nicolás GarayaldeCard upgrade
71'
Nicolás Garayalde
71'
Leonel Vangioni
75'
A. Bolívar← A. Max
80'
R. Gallo← L. Castro
80'
D. Zalazar← P. De Blasis
80'
L. Mamut← N. Colazo
85'
Tomás Jacob
86'
J. Pérez← A. Schott
86'
G. Chiaverano← J. García
90+9'
Yonatan Cabral
90+4'
Enzo Martínez
90+6'
Jeremías Pérez Tica
90'
Saúl Salcedo

Possession

38%Gimnasia

Shots

11Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

45%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaNewells
Overview
38%Possession62%
11Total Shots7
0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.52
2Corners5
19Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots7
5On Target1
4Off Target5
2Blocked1
6Inside Box5
5Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
282Total Passes456
190Accurate Passes373
67%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.61Goals Prevented0.61
Discipline
19Fouls10
3Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Newells Old Boys

Gimnasia L.P. beat Newells Old Boys 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 9, 2024.

Goals: R. Castillo (10').

Newells Old Boys controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.