Newells Old Boys 2–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Newells Old Boys

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

D. Reasco 40'

O. Piris 30' (OG)

9/11/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Newells Old Boys40%

×Draw30%

Gimnasia L.P.30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newells Old BoysExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.95

Newells Old Boys

1.15

Gimnasia L.P.

0.95

Newells Old Boys creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

1.07

creates per match

0.90

0.99

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Newells Old Boys

1.07

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Newells Old Boys

0.99

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Newells Old Boys-0.21scores less

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newells Old Boys ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Newells Old Boys or draw

70%

Newells Old Boys or Gimnasia L.P.

70%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

60%

Winning margin

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+

17%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals

68%

Newells Old Boys 2+ goals

32%

Newells Old Boys 3+ goals

11%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

61%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

25%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)

57%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newells Old Boys at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newells Old Boys attack 1.07 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Newells Old Boys defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newells Old Boys scores more

40%

level

30%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

30%

Newells Old Boys at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Alemán

Gimnasia L.P. · M

8.5

Match Events

23'

Guillermo Enrique

30'

O. PirisOwn goal

38'

Juan Sforza

40'

D. Reasco↳ J. Garro

48'

Matías Melluso

60'

F. González← J. Garro

62'

Francisco González

63'

L. Contín← B. Domínguez

64'

Brian Aguirre

67'

G. Gonzalez← G. Enrique

78'

M. Miranda← E. Ramírez

78'

L. Chávez← R. Sosa

86'

M. Campagnaro← M. Luciano

90+2'

N. Fúnez← D. Reasco

90+2'

G. Rossi← J. García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewellsGimnasia

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots20

3Corners5

19Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots20

5On Target5

8Off Target9

2Blocked6

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box11

Passing

47%Possession53%

337Total Passes373

228Accurate Passes262

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2