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Gimnasia L.P. vs Newells Old Boys — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
J. Carbonero 42'
10/16/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.34%
×Draw29%
Newells Old Boys36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.08
Newells Old Boys
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Newells Old Boys
1.12

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Newells Old Boys
1.10

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Newells Old Boys-0.27scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Newells Old Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
64%
Gimnasia L.P. or Newells Old Boys
71%
Draw or Newells Old Boys
66%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
14%
Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
66%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
29%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
10%
Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
67%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
31%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
49%
Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Newells Old Boys away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Newells Old Boys attack 1.12 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
34%
level
29%
Newells Old Boys scores more
36%

Newells Old Boys at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
L. MoralesGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · D
7.6

Match Events

29'
Luis Miguel Rodríguez
42'
J. Carbonero↳ F. Gerometta
61'
J. Garro← M. Comba
62'
G. Compagnucci← P. Acevedo
68'
Franco Negri
69'
N. Colazo← L. Rodríguez
72'
P. Sabbag← F. Belluschi
72'
F. González← J. Cristaldo
75'
S. Cocimano← R. Holgado
79'
Brahian Alemán
83'
Cristian Lema
87'
G. Fratta← J. Carbonero
87'
E. Ramírez← M. Pérez
87'
J. Giani← F. Negri
90+3'
Guillermo Fratta

Possession

48%Gimnasia

Shots

7Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

50%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaNewells
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots13
7Corners6
15Fouls22
Shots
7Total Shots13
3On Target3
2Off Target9
2Blocked1
3Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
361Total Passes391
266Accurate Passes285
74%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls22
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia L.P. 1–0 Newells Old Boys

Gimnasia L.P. beat Newells Old Boys 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Carbonero (42').

Newells Old Boys controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.