Necaxa 0–1 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tigres UANL

F. Gorriarán 42'

3/4/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa36%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.28

Necaxa

1.25

Tigres UANL

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

1.36

creates per match

1.26

1.30

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Tigres UANL

1.26

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Tigres UANL

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

71%

Necaxa 2+ goals

36%

Necaxa 3+ goals

13%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

72%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

37%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

49%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

36%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

37%

Tigres UANL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Gorriarán

Tigres UANL · M

8.0

Match Events

42'

F. Gorriarán↳ N. Ibáñez

46'

D. Reyes← Samir

53'

D. Batallini

54'

J. Domínguez← M. Silvera

61'

D. Lainez← S. Córdova

64'

B. Garnica← D. Batallini

67'

A. Pena

67'

J. Van Rankin

73'

L. Quinones

73'

J. Vigón← Rafael Carioca

74'

J. Angulo← L. Quiñones

77'

M. Pedroza← R. Monreal

77'

R. Cortéz← F. Madrigal

78'

85'

89'

90+6'

90+7'

R. Pineda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaTigres

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots9

3Corners1

21Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots9

2On Target4

9Off Target2

6Blocked3

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

433Total Passes468

340Accurate Passes382

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on March 4, 2023.

Goals: F. Gorriarán (42').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.

Necaxa vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Tigres UANL