Necaxa 2–0 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tigres UANL

J. Escoboza 25'

R. Aguirre 7'

4/20/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa36%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.28

Necaxa

1.25

Tigres UANL

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

1.36

creates per match

1.26

1.30

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Tigres UANL

1.26

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Tigres UANL

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

71%

Necaxa 2+ goals

36%

Necaxa 3+ goals

13%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

72%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

37%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

49%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

36%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

37%

Tigres UANL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Escoboza

Necaxa · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

R. Aguirre↳ J. Escoboza

25'

J. Escoboza

29'

Fernando Madrigal

46'

Milton Giménez

46'

Rafael Carioca← S. Córdova

58'

L. Quiñónes← N. López

59'

C. González← J. Vigón

65'

Á. Araos← D. Villalpando

66'

A. López← J. Escoboza

66'

F. Batista← M. Giménez

71'

73'

73'

76'

80'

81'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaTigres

Overview

39%Possession61%

7Total Shots16

6Corners4

26Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots16

5On Target2

1Off Target8

1Blocked6

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

306Total Passes476

224Accurate Passes404

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

26Fouls7

5Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1