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Necaxa vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
A. Gignac 78', 13'
E. Vargas 39'
7/25/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa36%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.25
Tigres UANL
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Tigres UANL
1.26

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Tigres UANL
1.14

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
63%
Necaxa or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
16%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
36%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
72%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
37%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
49%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more
36%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
37%

Tigres UANL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. GignacTigres UANLTigres UANL · F
8.8

Match Events

13'
A. Gignac↳ L. Quiñónes
37'
David Cabrera
39'
E. Vargas↳ J. Aquino
46'
Jairo González← R. Sandoval
46'
R. Chávez← C. Guzmán
46'
J. Rodríguez← Y. Leiva
66'
Ian González← J. Cobián
78'
A. Gignac↳ L. Quiñónes
80'
L. Fernández← E. Vargas
83'
J. Torres← J. Dueñas
89'
André-Pierre Gignac

Possession

40%Necaxa

Shots

8Necaxa

Pass accuracy

48%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaTigres
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots17
4Corners6
14Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots17
1On Target5
5Off Target5
2Blocked7
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box9
Passing
40%Possession60%
365Total Passes547
290Accurate Passes474
79%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Liga MX: Necaxa 0–3 Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat Necaxa 3-0 in Liga MX on July 25, 2020.

Goals: A. Gignac (13', 78'), E. Vargas (39').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.