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Necaxa vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
V. Dávila 85'
E. Vargas 90+1' (pen)
8/26/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Necaxa48%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.41
Tigres UANL
0.92

Necaxa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.71
Tigres UANL
0.91

allows per match

Necaxa
0.92
Tigres UANL
1.10

finishing

Necaxa+0.29scores more
Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
75%
Necaxa or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
52%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
24%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
76%
Necaxa 2+ goals
41%
Necaxa 3+ goals
17%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
60%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
23%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
66%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.10 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.71 + Tigres UANL defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + Necaxa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Necaxa scores more
48%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
25%

Necaxa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Rafael CariocaTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
7.4

Match Events

14'
Dieter Villalpando
26'
Sebastián Cordova
38'
Jesús Dueñas
46'
M. Allende← F. Córdova
56'
Julián Quiñones
65'
E. Vargas← J. Quiñones
85'
V. Dávila
87'
L. Pérez← B. Fernández
88'
Ventura Alvarado
90'
Hugo Gonzalez
90+1'
E. VargasPenalty

Possession

42%Necaxa

Shots

15Necaxa

Pass accuracy

48%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaTigres
Overview
42%Possession58%
15Total Shots17
2Corners6
13Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots17
5On Target3
8Off Target7
2Blocked7
5Inside Box8
10Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
368Total Passes477
300Accurate Passes419
82%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls16
5Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Liga MX: Necaxa 1–1 Tigres UANL

Necaxa and Tigres UANL drew 1-1 in Liga MX on August 26, 2018.

Goals: V. Dávila (85'), E. Vargas (90+1' pen).

Tigres UANL controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.