Nautico Recife 1–1 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CSA

Victor Ferraz 85'

Giva 25'

5/20/2022

Serie B · Round 8Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Nautico Recife40%

×Draw29%

CSA31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.04

Nautico Recife

1.22

CSA

1.04

Nautico Recife creates 17% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 67 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.33

CSA

0.88

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

CSA

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

69%

Nautico Recife or CSA

71%

Draw or CSA

60%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

17%

CSA wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

70%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

34%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

12%

CSA 1+ goals

65%

CSA 2+ goals

28%

CSA 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

56%

CSA (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 75 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.33 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

CSA attack 0.88 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

40%

level

29%

CSA scores more

31%

Nautico Recife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Lucas Perri

Nautico Recife · G

8.5

Match Events

25'

Giva↳ Ton

46'

Pedro Vitor← Niltinho

46'

Leandro Carvalho← Luis Phelipe

56'

Marco Tulio

58'

Bryan

62'

Victor Ferraz← Bryan

63'

Luiz Henrique← Lourenço

67'

Dalberto← Marco Túlio

68'

Felipe Augusto← Didira

74'

R. Franco← Ralph

76'

Lucas Barcelos← Gabriel

76'

Bruno Mota← Rodrigo Rodrigues

80'

M. Carne

82'

Amarildo← Léo Passos

85'

Victor Ferraz↳ Leandro Carvalho

88'

Lucao

90'

Richard Franco

90+2'

Felipe Augusto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoCSA

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots17

12Corners7

14Fouls22

Shots

18Total Shots17

6On Target9

4Off Target5

8Blocked3

11Inside Box8

7Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

305Total Passes326

224Accurate Passes243

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls22

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs CSA

Nautico Recife and CSA drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 20, 2022.

Goals: Giva (25'), Victor Ferraz (85').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Nautico Recife vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs CSA