CSA 2–2 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats | Serie C

CSA

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nautico Recife

Marco Antônio 90+6' (OG)

Roberto 69'

Bruno Mezenga 83'

Felipe Ferreira 36'

8/4/2024

Serie C · Round 16Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA40%

×Draw28%

Nautico Recife32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.11

CSA

1.26

Nautico Recife

1.11

CSA creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 51 away

1.23

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CSA

1.23

Nautico Recife

1.12

allows per match

CSA

1.10

Nautico Recife

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSA or draw

68%

CSA or Nautico Recife

72%

Draw or Nautico Recife

60%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

18%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

72%

CSA 2+ goals

36%

CSA 3+ goals

13%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

67%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

30%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

55%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CSA scores more

40%

level

28%

Nautico Recife scores more

32%

CSA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

Jeferson Romário

Nautico Recife · G

8.7

Match Events

4'

Arnaldo

36'

Felipe Ferreira

46'

Dudu Miraíma← Buga

55'

Robinho← Brayann

59'

Marco Antônio← Marco Antônio

59'

Mateus Ludke← Arnaldo

69'

Roberto

70'

Foguinho← Gustavinho

70'

Vitor Leque← Richard Rodrigues

74'

76'

83'

85'

86'

Iury Tanque← Gustavo Nicola

88'

Wendel Lessa← Gustavo Maia

88'

Kaike← Felipe Ferreira

89'

90+3'

90+3'

90'

90+6'

Marco AntônioOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSANautico

Overview

61%Possession39%

26Total Shots6

1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.83

9Corners1

12Fouls22

Shots

26Total Shots6

10On Target3

9Off Target1

6Blocked2

12Inside Box4

14Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

444Total Passes274

364Accurate Passes210

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls22

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1