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CSA vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
Lucas Barcelos 69'
Elton 51'
8/31/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 27Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA54%
×Draw26%
Nautico Recife20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.50
Nautico Recife
0.79

CSA creates 90% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 77 away

creates per match

CSA
1.43
Nautico Recife
0.74

allows per match

CSA
0.84
Nautico Recife
1.57

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw
80%
CSA or Nautico Recife
74%
Draw or Nautico Recife
46%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
28%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
78%
CSA 2+ goals
44%
CSA 3+ goals
19%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
55%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
19%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
73%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CSA scores more
54%
level
26%
Nautico Recife scores more
20%

CSA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Lucas BarcelosCSACSA · M
7.9

Match Events

26'
Arthur← Maurício
38'
Osvaldo← Yann Rolim
48'
Arthur
51'
Elton↳ Lucas Barcelos
55'
Jean Carlos
67'
H. Canteros← Lucas Lourenço
67'
J. Mercado← Elton
68'
Éverton Brito← Julio Vitor
68'
Julio← R. Franco
68'
Victor Ferraz← Anilson
69'
Lucas Barcelos
70'
Lucas Barcelos
73'
Geovane Batista
79'
Junior Tavares← Jobson
81'
Ferreira← Geovane
81'
Rodrigo Rodrigues← Lucas Barcelos
88'
Wellington
89'
90+5'
Werley

Possession

39%CSA

Shots

15CSA

Pass accuracy

46%CSA

Statistics

CSANautico
Overview
39%Possession61%
15Total Shots16
3Corners13
11Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots16
6On Target3
8Off Target5
1Blocked8
9Inside Box3
6Outside Box13
Passing
39%Possession61%
286Total Passes437
202Accurate Passes360
71%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: CSA vs Nautico Recife

CSA beat Nautico Recife 2-0 in Serie B on August 31, 2022.

Goals: Elton (51'), Lucas Barcelos (69').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.