CSA 2–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats | Serie C

CSA

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nautico Recife

Igor Bahia 76'

Tiago Marques 25'

Paulo Sergio 36'

4/26/2025

Serie C · Round 3Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA40%

×Draw28%

Nautico Recife32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.11

CSA

1.26

Nautico Recife

1.11

CSA creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 51 away

1.23

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CSA

1.23

Nautico Recife

1.12

allows per match

CSA

1.10

Nautico Recife

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSA or draw

68%

CSA or Nautico Recife

72%

Draw or Nautico Recife

60%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

18%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

72%

CSA 2+ goals

36%

CSA 3+ goals

13%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

67%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

30%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

55%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CSA scores more

40%

level

28%

Nautico Recife scores more

32%

CSA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Marco Antonio← Igor Pereira

25'

Tiago Marques

36'

Paulo Sergio↳ Auremir

45+1'

Marco Antonio

45+4'

Joao Maistro

46'

Islan← Marcao

46'

61'

61'

65'

65'

67'

Igor Bahia← Gustavo Nicola

67'

Arnaldo← Marcos Ytalo

67'

Wenderson← Patrick Allan

72'

Arnaldo

76'

Igor Bahia↳ Islan

77'

Kevyn← Tiago Marques

82'

Igor Bahia

82'

Roberto← Guilherme Cachoeira

90+3'

Paulo Sergio

CSA

Nautico

19

Becker

6

Paulo

17

▼

Ytalo

33

Carlinhos

40

▼

Maistro

18

A

Auremir

20

▼

Allan

5

▼

Pereira

9

⚽

Sergio

7

Vinicius

12

▼

1

2

3

6

4

▼

Marcao

5

Camacho

8

▼

Nicola

9

⚽

▼

Marques

10

Brayann

11

▼

Cachoeira

7

▼

Klenisson

46'▲Islan←▼Marcao

46'▲Baianinho←▼Klenisson

67'▲Igor Bahia←▼Gustavo Nicola

77'▲Kevyn←▼Tiago Marques

82'▲Roberto←▼Guilherme Cachoeira

CSA substitutes

12Georgemy14Ramon17Silas31Paulo15Kevyn20Alvaro13Islan16Roberto21Vieira22Robinho18Baianinho19Bahia

Manager: Hélio dos Anjos

19'▲Marco Antonio←▼Igor Pereira

61'▲Rayan←▼Joao Maistro

61'▲Helio Borges←▼Kelvin

67'▲Arnaldo←▼Marcos Ytalo

67'▲Wenderson←▼Patrick Allan

Nautico Recife substitutes

1Wellerson2Arnaldo16Santana3Rayan23Fernandes22Wenderson8Antonio27Maranhao10Vitor11Borges80Mezenga

Serie C: CSA 2–1 Nautico Recife

CSA beat Nautico Recife 2-1 in Serie C on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Tiago Marques (25'), Paulo Sergio (36'), Igor Bahia (76').

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.

CSA vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: CSA 2–1 Nautico Recife