CSA 4–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

CSA

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nautico Recife

Ramon 83'

Tiago Marques 50'

Guilherme Cachoeira 26', 7'

S. Otusanya 80'

2/27/2025

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 4Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CSA54%

×Draw24%

Nautico Recife22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.00

CSA

1.73

Nautico Recife

1.00

CSA creates 73% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

1.70

creates per match

1.20

0.81

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

CSA

1.70

Nautico Recife

1.20

allows per match

CSA

0.81

Nautico Recife

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CSA or draw

78%

CSA or Nautico Recife

76%

Draw or Nautico Recife

46%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

30%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

82%

CSA 2+ goals

52%

CSA 3+ goals

25%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

63%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

26%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

71%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.70 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + CSA defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CSA scores more

54%

level

24%

Nautico Recife scores more

22%

CSA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

26'

43'

46'

50'

55'

55'

Ramon← Gustavo Nicola

65'

Kayon← Vinícius

65'

Marco Antônio← Patrick Allan

69'

Camacho

70'

Silas← Vander

70'

76'

76'

78'

79'

80'

81'

Klenisson← Tiago Marques

81'

Robinho← Guilherme Cachoeira

83'

Ramon

85'

Índio← Paulo Sérgio

86'

Marcelinho

CSA

Nautico

19

23

17

12

16

18

▼

Auremir

25

Sousa

20

▼

Allan

22

▼

Wenderson

9

▼

Sérgio

11

▼

1

4

2

3

6

5

▼

Camacho

8

▼

Vander

15

▼

Nicola

9

⚽

▼

Marques

11

⚽2

▼

Cachoeira

10

Brayann

Manager: Higo Magalhães

55'▲Ramon←▼Gustavo Nicola

70'▲Silas←▼Vander

70'▲Marcelinho←▼Camacho

81'▲Klenisson←▼Tiago Marques

81'▲Robinho←▼Guilherme Cachoeira

CSA substitutes

22Ramon17Silas18Marcelinho21Klenisson99Robinho12Felix7Gustavinho13Islan20Álvaro16Jefferson14Marcão31Vitor

Manager: Marquinhos Santos

46'▲S. Otusanya←▼Auremir

65'▲Kayon←▼Vinícius

65'▲Marco Antônio←▼Patrick Allan

76'▲Maranhão←▼Wenderson

85'▲Índio←▼Paulo Sérgio

Nautico Recife substitutes

34Otusanya15Kayon8Antônio27Maranhão13Índio1Wellerson2Arnaldo80Mezenga10Geovane7Borges14Odivan

Copa do Nordeste: CSA 4–1 Nautico Recife

CSA beat Nautico Recife 4-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 27, 2025.

Goals: Guilherme Cachoeira (7', 26'), Tiago Marques (50'), S. Otusanya (80'), Ramon (83').

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.

CSA vs Nautico Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa do Nordeste: CSA 4–1 Nautico Recife