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Nantes vs Dijon — Ligue 1 2026

Nantes
Nantes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dijon
Dijon
M. Simon 24' (pen)
M. Konaté 54'
12/13/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nantes50%
×Draw25%
Dijon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes
1.56
Dijon
1.01

Nantes creates 54% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nantes
1.30
Dijon
0.73

allows per match

Nantes
1.29
Dijon
1.81

finishing

Nantes+0.00on par
Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes ↓

Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nantes or draw
75%
Nantes or Dijon
75%
Draw or Dijon
50%

Winning margin

Nantes wins by 2+
26%
Dijon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nantes 1+ goals
79%
Nantes 2+ goals
46%
Nantes 3+ goals
21%
Dijon 1+ goals
64%
Dijon 2+ goals
27%
Dijon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nantes (draw refunded)
67%
Dijon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.29 · 113 matches

Dijon away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes attack 1.30 + Dijon defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dijon attack 0.73 + Nantes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nantes scores more
50%
level
25%
Dijon scores more
25%

Nantes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
FábioNantesNantes · D
7.9

Match Events

-5'
Ludovic Blas
22'
Jonathan Panzo
24'
M. SimonPenalty
31'
Pedro Chirivella
46'
M. Chouiar← E. Ebimbe
54'
M. Konaté↳ D. Ndong
62'
K. Bamba← M. Coco
63'
R. Muani← M. Abeid
63'
A. Touré← R. Emond
75'
L. Blas← Chirivella
76'
M. Dobre← M. Konaté
87'
A. Scheidler← F. Sammaritano
89'
D. Appiah← Fábio
90'
Aurelien Scheidler

Possession

37%Nantes

Shots

17Nantes

Pass accuracy

44%Nantes

Statistics

NantesDijon
Overview
37%Possession63%
17Total Shots13
4Corners4
11Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots13
6On Target4
6Off Target7
5Blocked2
11Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
339Total Passes569
227Accurate Passes477
67%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Ligue 1: Nantes 1–1 Dijon

Nantes and Dijon drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 13, 2020.

Goals: M. Simon (24' pen), M. Konaté (54').

Dijon controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.