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Dijon vs Nantes — Ligue 1 2026

Dijon
Dijon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nantes
Nantes
Júlio Tavares 73', 8'
8/18/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dijon33%
×Draw28%
Nantes39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.11
Nantes
1.23

Nantes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 112 away

creates per match

Dijon
0.84
Nantes
1.01

allows per match

Dijon
1.46
Nantes
1.38

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Nantes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
61%
Dijon or Nantes
72%
Draw or Nantes
67%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
13%
Nantes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
67%
Dijon 2+ goals
30%
Dijon 3+ goals
10%
Nantes 1+ goals
71%
Nantes 2+ goals
35%
Nantes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
46%
Nantes (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.46 · 50 matches

Nantes away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 0.84 + Nantes defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nantes attack 1.01 + Dijon defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dijon scores more
33%
level
28%
Nantes scores more
39%

Nantes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Júlio TavaresDijonDijon · F
8.8

Match Events

8'
Júlio Tavares↳ O. Haddadi
43'
Diego Carlos
58'
K. Coulibaly← E. Sala
58'
A. Waris← Boschilia
72'
W. Saïd← B. Jeannot
73'
Júlio Tavares↳ V. Rosier
78'
Abdoulaye Touré
82'
R. Krhin← Lucas Evangelista
83'
Y. Gourcuff← N. Sliti
87'
J. Keita← F. Sammaritano

Possession

32%Dijon

Shots

14Dijon

Pass accuracy

44%Dijon

Statistics

DijonNantes
Overview
32%Possession68%
14Total Shots7
3Corners4
18Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots7
7On Target0
6Off Target4
1Blocked3
9Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
32%Possession68%
276Total Passes597
189Accurate Passes505
68%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
6Offsides2

Match Recap: Dijon vs Nantes

Dijon beat Nantes 2-0 in Ligue 1 on August 18, 2018.

Goals: Júlio Tavares (8', 73').

Nantes controlled possession (68%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.