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Dijon vs Nantes — Ligue 1 2026

Dijon
Dijon
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Nantes
Nantes
R. Muani 90+3', 32'
L. Blas 90+1'
K. Coulibaly 6'
5/16/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 37Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dijon33%
×Draw28%
Nantes39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.11
Nantes
1.23

Nantes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 112 away

creates per match

Dijon
0.84
Nantes
1.01

allows per match

Dijon
1.46
Nantes
1.38

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Nantes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
61%
Dijon or Nantes
72%
Draw or Nantes
67%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
13%
Nantes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
67%
Dijon 2+ goals
30%
Dijon 3+ goals
10%
Nantes 1+ goals
71%
Nantes 2+ goals
35%
Nantes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
46%
Nantes (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.46 · 50 matches

Nantes away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 0.84 + Nantes defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nantes attack 1.01 + Dijon defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dijon scores more
33%
level
28%
Nantes scores more
39%

Nantes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
Randal Kolo MuaniNantesNantes · F
9.0

Match Events

6'
K. Coulibaly↳ M. Simon
27'
Jordan Marié
32'
R. Muani
60'
Mama Baldé← J. Siwe
61'
Kalifa Coulibaly
64'
M. Coco← K. Coulibaly
71'
A. Kamara← J. Panzo
79'
Andrei Girotto← M. Simon
85'
Bruno Ecuele Manga
90+4'
R. Pereira de Sa← R. Muani
90+4'
R. Emond← L. Blas
90+1'
L. Blas↳ R. Muani
90+3'
R. Muani↳ L. Blas

Possession

70%Dijon

Shots

10Dijon

Pass accuracy

54%Dijon

Statistics

DijonNantes
Overview
70%Possession30%
10Total Shots16
3Corners6
12Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots16
1On Target4
4Off Target9
5Blocked3
8Inside Box11
2Outside Box5
Passing
70%Possession30%
668Total Passes266
569Accurate Passes192
85%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Dijon vs Nantes

Nantes beat Dijon 4-0 in Ligue 1 on May 16, 2021.

Goals: K. Coulibaly (6'), R. Muani (32', 90+3'), L. Blas (90+1').

Dijon controlled possession (70%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.