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Nantes vs Dijon — Ligue 1 2026

Nantes
Nantes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dijon
Dijon
L. Blas 73'
12/8/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nantes50%
×Draw25%
Dijon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes
1.56
Dijon
1.01

Nantes creates 54% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nantes
1.30
Dijon
0.73

allows per match

Nantes
1.29
Dijon
1.81

finishing

Nantes+0.00on par
Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes ↓

Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nantes or draw
75%
Nantes or Dijon
75%
Draw or Dijon
50%

Winning margin

Nantes wins by 2+
26%
Dijon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nantes 1+ goals
79%
Nantes 2+ goals
46%
Nantes 3+ goals
21%
Dijon 1+ goals
64%
Dijon 2+ goals
27%
Dijon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nantes (draw refunded)
67%
Dijon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.29 · 113 matches

Dijon away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes attack 1.30 + Dijon defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dijon attack 0.73 + Nantes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nantes scores more
50%
level
25%
Dijon scores more
25%

Nantes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
A. TouréNantesNantes · M
8.1

Match Events

46'
S. Mavididi← Mama Baldé
50'
Florent Balmont
57'
Matheus Pereira
70'
Nicolas Pallois
71'
B. Soumaré← Matheus Pereira
72'
M. Abeid← K. Coulibaly
73'
L. Blas↳ M. Simon
81'
E. Loiodice← R. Amalfitano
89'
C. Benavente← L. Blas
90+1'
S. Moutoussamy← K. Bamba

Possession

52%Nantes

Shots

17Nantes

Pass accuracy

52%Nantes

Statistics

NantesDijon
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots5
9Corners1
12Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots5
6On Target1
10Off Target4
1Blocked0
7Inside Box5
10Outside Box0
Passing
52%Possession48%
487Total Passes454
405Accurate Passes356
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Nantes 1 – 0 Dijon

Nantes beat Dijon 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 8, 2019.

Goals: L. Blas (73').

Nantes controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.