Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Fagiano Okayama: Result & Stats

Nagoya Grampus

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fagiano Okayama

H. Koda 65'

D. Tagami 89'

4/29/2026

J1 League · Round 13Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%

×Draw26%

Fagiano Okayama29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Nagoya Grampus

1.52

Fagiano Okayama

1.14

Nagoya Grampus creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.36

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.31

Fagiano Okayama

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Fagiano Okayama+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

71%

Nagoya Grampus or Fagiano Okayama

74%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

23%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

78%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

45%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

20%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

68%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

32%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

62%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fagiano Okayama attack 0.96 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

46%

level

26%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

29%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Tagami

Fagiano Okayama · D

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Ataru Esaka

46'

H. Koda← R. Izumi

46'

Lucao← Werik Popo

46'

T. Yamane← N. Browne

59'

S. Sugiura← Y. Yamagishi

59'

J. Nishikawa← T. Kimura

65'

H. Koda

67'

Leo Gaucho← M. Matsumoto

70'

K. Mikuni← T. Morishima

80'

M. Ono← Y. Asano

80'

85'

89'

94'

97'

Kota KawanoGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NagoyaFagiano

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots14

0.69Expected Goals (xG)1.89

7Corners2

6Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target4

4Off Target10

3Blocked0

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

577Total Passes312

492Accurate Passes232

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Fagiano Okayama

Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama drew 1-1 in J1 League on April 29, 2026.

Goals: H. Koda (65'), D. Tagami (89').

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.

Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Fagiano Okayama