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Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
3/1/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fagiano Okayama36%
×Draw26%
Nagoya Grampus38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.32
Nagoya Grampus
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.38
Nagoya Grampus
1.37

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.35
Nagoya Grampus
1.26

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.50scores less
Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
62%
Fagiano Okayama or Nagoya Grampus
74%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
64%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
16%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
73%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
38%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
15%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
74%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
39%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
49%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.38 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.37 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
36%
level
26%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
38%

Nagoya Grampus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus

Fagiano Okayama and Nagoya Grampus drew 1-1 in J1 League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.