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Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
5/6/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 15Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%
×Draw26%
Fagiano Okayama29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.52
Fagiano Okayama
1.14

Nagoya Grampus creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.36
Fagiano Okayama
0.96

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.31
Fagiano Okayama
1.67

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.12scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
71%
Nagoya Grampus or Fagiano Okayama
74%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
23%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
78%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
45%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
20%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
68%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
32%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
62%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fagiano Okayama attack 0.96 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
46%
level
26%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
29%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70
T. HaraNagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus · D
7.6

Match Events

12'
Hiroto Iwabuchi
46'
K. Nakayama← S. Tokumoto
46'
Y. Yamagishi← K. Nagai
46'
R. Sato← H. Iwabuchi
61'
R. Takeuchi← R. Tabei
66'
Y. Asano← Mateus
66'
T. Morishima← R. Izumi
72'
T. Kimura← A. Esaka
72'
N. Browne← Lucao
82'
Ryunosuke Sato
83'
Gleyson← H. Kato
85'
Y. Nogami← T. Uchida

Possession

60%Nagoya

Shots

11Nagoya

Pass accuracy

53%Nagoya

Statistics

NagoyaFagiano
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots6
1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.59
4Corners5
8Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots6
2On Target1
7Off Target1
2Blocked4
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box0
Passing
60%Possession40%
474Total Passes299
360Accurate Passes203
76%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
8Offsides2

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 0–0 Fagiano Okayama

Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama drew 0-0 in J1 League on May 6, 2025.

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.