Fagiano Okayama 0–1 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nagoya Grampus

Y. Sato 61'

9/13/2025

J1 League · Round 29City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fagiano Okayama36%

×Draw26%

Nagoya Grampus38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.36

Fagiano Okayama

1.32

Nagoya Grampus

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

1.38

creates per match

1.37

1.35

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Nagoya Grampus

1.37

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.35

Nagoya Grampus

1.26

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.50scores less

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

62%

Fagiano Okayama or Nagoya Grampus

74%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

64%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

16%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

73%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

38%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

15%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

74%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

39%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

49%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.38 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.37 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

36%

level

26%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

38%

Nagoya Grampus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Y. Sato

Nagoya Grampus · D

8.0

Match Events

21'

Yuta Kamiya

32'

Soichiro Mori

57'

Lucao← K. Ichimi

60'

Y. Nogami← S. Mori

61'

Y. Sato↳ S. Inagaki

62'

H. Kato← T. Kimura

62'

T. Yanagi← M. Matsumoto

73'

H. Iwabuchi← A. Esaka

73'

Werik Popo← Kamiya Yuta

76'

Y. Asano← K. Nagai

76'

Y. Kimura← Y. Yamagishi

79'

Katsuhiro Nakayama

90+13'

Ryunosuke Sato

90+9'

Daichi TagamiGoal cancelled

90'

G. Kato← T. Morishima

90'

M. Ono← K. Nakayama

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoNagoya

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots6

0.66Expected Goals (xG)0.85

7Corners3

15Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots6

1On Target2

7Off Target2

4Blocked2

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

444Total Passes273

336Accurate Passes175

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4