Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

Nagoya Grampus

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Avispa Fukuoka

Y. Kimura 90'

Y. Asano 83'

M. Shigemi 35'

S. Usui 24'

4/19/2026

J1 League · Round 11Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Nagoya Grampus41%

×Draw27%

Avispa Fukuoka32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.18

Nagoya Grampus

1.36

Avispa Fukuoka

1.18

Nagoya Grampus creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.36

creates per match

1.05

1.31

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.36

Avispa Fukuoka

1.05

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.31

Avispa Fukuoka

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Avispa Fukuoka+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

68%

Nagoya Grampus or Avispa Fukuoka

73%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

59%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

19%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

74%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

39%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

16%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

69%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

33%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

56%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.05 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

41%

level

27%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

32%

Nagoya Grampus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Y. Kimura

Nagoya Grampus · F

8.0

Match Events

24'

33'

35'

41'

46'

Y. Asano← Y. Yamagishi

46'

T. Kikuchi← T. Hara

63'

Y. Michiwaki← M. Shigemi

64'

K. Yamawaki← Y. Maejima

64'

T. Nara← T. Oka

67'

Nara Tatsuki

69'

R. Tsuruno← Y. Kitajima

71'

Yutaka Michiwaki

71'

S. Sugiura← H. Koda

79'

M. Ono← T. Morishima

79'

S. Mori← R. Izumi

82'

K. Fujimoto← S. Usui

83'

Y. Asano↳ Y. Kimura

90+10'

Tomoki Takamine

90'

Y. Kimura↳ M. Ono

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NagoyaAvispa

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots9

5Corners5

7Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target6

5Off Target2

5Blocked1

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

467Total Passes270

374Accurate Passes184

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3