Avispa Fukuoka 1–5 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Nagoya Grampus

T. Oka 89'

S. Mori 90'

Y. Yamagishi 64', 12'

Y. Kimura 39'

S. Inagaki 25'

3/7/2026

J1 League · Round 5Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka36%

×Draw27%

Nagoya Grampus38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Avispa Fukuoka

1.27

Nagoya Grampus

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.29

creates per match

1.37

1.24

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.29

Nagoya Grampus

1.37

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.24

Nagoya Grampus

1.26

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka-0.24scores less

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

62%

Avispa Fukuoka or Nagoya Grampus

73%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

64%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

16%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

72%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

36%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

14%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

73%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

38%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

49%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.29 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.37 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

36%

level

27%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

38%

Nagoya Grampus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

H. Fujii

Nagoya Grampus · D

8.3

Match Events

12'

Y. Yamagishi↳ Marcus Vinicius

25'

S. Inagaki↳ Marcus Vinicius

39'

Y. Kimura↳ T. Hara

41'

Y. Kitajima← K. Okuno

46'

H. Akino← K. Fujimoto

46'

M. Yuzawa← Y. Hashimoto

53'

Masaya Tashiro

61'

Yuma Tsujioka

61'

N. Ben Khalifa← S. Nago

64'

Y. Yamagishi↳ K. Nakayama

68'

Teppei Oka

76'

Masato YuzawaPenalty cancelled

80'

S. Mori← Marcus Vinicius

81'

83'

83'

87'

87'

87'

K. Shiihashi← S. Inagaki

87'

H. Koda← K. Nakayama

87'

S. Sugiura← Y. Asano

89'

T. Oka

90'

S. Mori↳ H. Fujii

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaNagoya

Overview

40%Possession60%

17Total Shots22

1.63Expected Goals (xG)2.34

3Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots22

5On Target6

7Off Target12

5Blocked4

9Inside Box13

8Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

343Total Passes516

266Accurate Passes418

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls11

5Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 1–5 Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus beat Avispa Fukuoka 5-1 in J1 League on March 7, 2026.

Goals: Y. Yamagishi (12', 64'), S. Inagaki (25'), Y. Kimura (39'), T. Oka (89'), S. Mori (90').

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (60%) and registered 22 shots to 17.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 1–5 Nagoya Grampus