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Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
I. Oda 88'
10/4/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka36%
×Draw27%
Nagoya Grampus37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.26
Nagoya Grampus
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.27
Nagoya Grampus
1.35

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.20
Nagoya Grampus
1.25

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka-0.22scores less
Nagoya Grampus-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
63%
Avispa Fukuoka or Nagoya Grampus
73%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
64%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
16%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
72%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
36%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
13%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
72%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
36%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
50%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 22 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.27 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.35 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
36%
level
27%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
37%

Nagoya Grampus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
Douglas GrolliAvispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka · D
7.7

Match Events

55'
Wellington Tanque← S. Zahedi
60'
S. Tokumoto← R. Yamanaka
60'
K. Nagai← K. Junker
60'
Patric← Y. Yamagishi
70'
I. Oda← M. Yuzawa
70'
D. Matsuoka← T. Kanamori
71'
R. Izumi← T. Morishima
83'
R. Sato← M. Shigemi
83'
Y. Iwasaki← Y. Maejima
88'
I. Oda↳ Douglas Grolli
90+2'
Kennedy Mikuni
90+1'
Ryuji Izumi

Possession

45%Avispa

Shots

15Avispa

Pass accuracy

50%Avispa

Statistics

AvispaNagoya
Overview
45%Possession55%
15Total Shots15
0.52Expected Goals (xG)1.70
1Corners4
16Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots15
3On Target4
5Off Target7
7Blocked4
10Inside Box10
5Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
360Total Passes436
269Accurate Passes331
75%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Nagoya Grampus

Avispa Fukuoka beat Nagoya Grampus 1-0 in J1 League on October 4, 2024.

Goals: I. Oda (88').

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.