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Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
S. Inagaki 90'
12/6/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 38Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Nagoya Grampus41%
×Draw27%
Avispa Fukuoka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.36
Avispa Fukuoka
1.18

Nagoya Grampus creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.36
Avispa Fukuoka
1.05

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.31
Avispa Fukuoka
1.36

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.10scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
68%
Nagoya Grampus or Avispa Fukuoka
73%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
59%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
19%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
74%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
39%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
16%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
69%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
33%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
56%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.05 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
41%
level
27%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
32%

Nagoya Grampus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. InagakiNagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus · M
8.0

Match Events

32'
Teruki Hara
37'
Daiki Matsuoka
46'
Y. Iwasaki← H. Maeda
66'
M. Ono← K. Nagai
71'
Y. Kitajima← S. Nago
71'
S. Sato← M. Shigemi
81'
A. Sani Brown← S. Usui
82'
A. Kawazura← Y. Sato
82'
Y. Kimura← S. Mori
88'
S. Sugiura← K. Junker
90+3'
Yudai KimuraPenalty confirmed
90+8'
Tatsuki Nara
90'
M. Yuzawa← Y. Hashimoto
90'
S. Inagaki

Possession

50%Nagoya

Shots

10Nagoya

Pass accuracy

50%Nagoya

Statistics

NagoyaAvispa
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots12
4Corners5
7Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots12
7On Target4
2Off Target5
1Blocked3
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
461Total Passes464
367Accurate Passes367
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka

Nagoya Grampus beat Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 in J1 League on December 6, 2025.

Goals: S. Inagaki (90').

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.