Nacional Potosí 2–0 ABB: Result & Stats

Nacional Potosí

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ABB

S. Guerra 90'

M. Nunez 40' (pen)

12/8/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 28Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Nacional Potosí67%

×Draw18%

ABB15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.11

Nacional Potosí

2.47

ABB

1.11

Nacional Potosí creates 123% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 21 away

2.19

creates per match

1.10

1.12

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.19

ABB

1.10

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

1.12

ABB

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

85%

Nacional Potosí or ABB

82%

Draw or ABB

33%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

45%

ABB wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

91%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

70%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

44%

ABB 1+ goals

67%

ABB 2+ goals

30%

ABB 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

81%

ABB (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

ABB away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.19 + ABB defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.47

ABB attack 1.10 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

67%

level

18%

ABB scores more

15%

Nacional Potosí at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Nunez

Nacional Potosí · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

Jairo Rojas

36'

William ÁlvarezPenalty confirmed

40'

M. NunezPenalty

44'

Pedro Azogue

45+5'

Alejandro Bejarano

46'

M. Galindo← J. Rojas

46'

A. Cervantes← D. Gutierrez

57'

Pedro AzoguePenalty cancelled

60'

S. Guerra← P. Azogue

60'

D. Palacio← J. Rojas

63'

Saulo Guerra

68'

S. Torres← O. Baldomar

75'

R. Orihuela← J. Mena

75'

P. Loza← B. Espinoza

76'

L. Pavia← M. Nunez

76'

A. Garcia← W. Alvarez

81'

Diego Hoyos

87'

Sebastian Galindo Novillo

87'

Sebastian Galindo NovilloCard upgrade

90+4'

Edisson Restrepo

90+1'

Alfredo García

90+8'

Stefano ArdayaPenalty cancelled

90+3'

M. Quiroga← J. Rivas

90'

S. Guerra↳ A. Garcia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalABB

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots7

4Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

3On Target4

6Off Target3

3Blocked0

7Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

384Total Passes256

331Accurate Passes191

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1