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ABB vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2026

ABB
ABB
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
J. Rivas 88'
A. Cervantes 28' (pen)
J. Guerra 45'
A. Mansilla 35'
7/7/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ABB42%
×Draw24%
Nacional Potosí34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABB
1.59
Nacional Potosí
1.41

ABB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 130 away

creates per match

ABB
1.40
Nacional Potosí
1.22

allows per match

ABB
1.60
Nacional Potosí
1.78

finishing

ABB+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ABB or draw
66%
ABB or Nacional Potosí
76%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
58%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+
21%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals
80%
ABB 2+ goals
47%
ABB 3+ goals
21%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
76%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
41%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)
55%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.40 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nacional Potosí attack 1.22 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABB scores more
42%
level
24%
Nacional Potosí scores more
34%

ABB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
E. PaniaguaABBABB · M
7.9

Match Events

9'
Miguel Quiroga
28'
A. CervantesPenalty
30'
Gary Rea
35'
A. Mansilla↳ D. Palacio
43'
Pablo Meza
43'
Jorge Rojas
45'
J. Guerra
46'
D. Gutierrez← J. Alaca
46'
L. Vaca← G. Rea Mendieta
46'
C. Roca← J. Rojas
49'
Rodrigo Orihuela
54'
A. Arroyo← M. Quiroga
58'
Pedro Azogue
67'
J. Rivas← A. Cervantes
71'
Saúl Torres
76'
A. Garcia← A. Torrico
84'
J. Vedia← M. Galindo
87'
S. Guerra← D. Palacio
88'
J. Rivas↳ L. Vaca
90+6'
Juan Vedia
90'
Juan Vedia
90+6'
Juan Vedia
90+2'
Denilson Gutiérrez
90+1'
Denilson GutiérrezCard upgrade
90+8'
Saulo Guerra
90+3'
Agustin Mansilla
90+4'
M. Payares← S. Torres

Possession

48%ABB

Shots

10ABB

Pass accuracy

50%ABB

Statistics

ABBNacional
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots16
0Corners5
13Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots16
2On Target7
4Off Target7
4Blocked2
7Inside Box8
3Outside Box8
Passing
48%Possession52%
333Total Passes358
282Accurate Passes305
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls12
6Yellow Cards4
2Red Cards1
2Offsides4

Match Recap: ABB vs Nacional Potosí

ABB and Nacional Potosí drew 2-2 in Primera División on July 7, 2025.

Goals: A. Cervantes (28' pen), A. Mansilla (35'), J. Guerra (45'), J. Rivas (88').

Nacional Potosí controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.