Nacional Potosí 4–2 ABB: Result & Stats

Nacional Potosí

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

ABB

10/29/2025

League #964 · Copa Bolivia - 13Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte de Potosí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional Potosí75%

×Draw16%

ABB10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

0.80

Nacional Potosí

2.53

ABB

0.80

Nacional Potosí creates 216% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.20

ABB

1.00

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

0.60

ABB

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

90%

Nacional Potosí or ABB

84%

Draw or ABB

25%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

52%

ABB wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

92%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

71%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

46%

ABB 1+ goals

55%

ABB 2+ goals

19%

ABB 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

88%

ABB (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

ABB away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.20 + ABB defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.53

ABB attack 1.00 + Nacional Potosí defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

75%

level

16%

ABB scores more

10%

Nacional Potosí at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff