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ABB vs Nacional Potosí — League #964 2026

ABB
ABB
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
10/3/2025League #964League #964 · Copa Bolivia - 8Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ABB34%
×Draw25%
Nacional Potosí41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABB
1.34
Nacional Potosí
1.48

Nacional Potosí creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

ABB
1.29
Nacional Potosí
1.40

allows per match

ABB
1.57
Nacional Potosí
1.40

finishing

ABB+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ABB or draw
59%
ABB or Nacional Potosí
75%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
66%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+
15%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals
74%
ABB 2+ goals
39%
ABB 3+ goals
15%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
77%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
43%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)
46%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.29 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nacional Potosí attack 1.40 + ABB defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ABB scores more
34%
level
25%
Nacional Potosí scores more
41%

Nacional Potosí at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #964: ABB 1–3 Nacional Potosí

Nacional Potosí beat ABB 3-1 in League #964 on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.