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NAC Breda vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
V. Kotzebue 21'
M. Apau 23'
11/4/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

NAC Breda51%
×Draw24%
Telstar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.74
Telstar
1.14

NAC Breda creates 53% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 129 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.79
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.10
Telstar
1.69

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
75%
NAC Breda or Telstar
76%
Draw or Telstar
49%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
28%
Telstar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
82%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
52%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
25%
Telstar 1+ goals
68%
Telstar 2+ goals
32%
Telstar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
67%
Telstar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.10 · 87 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.79 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.74

Telstar attack 1.18 + NAC Breda defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

NAC Breda scores more
51%
level
24%
Telstar scores more
25%

NAC Breda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
S. de WijsNAC BredaNAC Breda · D
7.5

Match Events

21'
V. Kotzebue↳ S. Agougil
23'
M. Apau↳ C. Giousis
30'
Ozgur Aktas
55'
Thomas Marijnissen
58'
Alex Plat
60'
J. Antonia← V. Kotzebue
60'
O. Velanas← T. Marijnissen
60'
K. de Rooij← J. Vet
80'
M. Ainsalu← A. Bensabouh
82'
Sabir Agougil
90+2'
Delvechio Blackson

Possession

63%NAC

Shots

11NAC

Pass accuracy

55%NAC

Statistics

NACTelstar
Overview
63%Possession37%
11Total Shots7
7Corners1
20Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots7
1On Target2
7Off Target4
3Blocked1
6Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
569Total Passes339
476Accurate Passes238
84%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
20Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides5

Eerste Divisie: NAC Breda 1–1 Telstar

NAC Breda and Telstar drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 4, 2022.

Goals: V. Kotzebue (21'), M. Apau (23').

NAC Breda controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.