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Mouloudia Oujda vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola 2 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
5/10/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 24Honneur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda38%
×Draw32%
Chabab Mohammédia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
0.99
Chabab Mohammédia
0.85

Mouloudia Oujda creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.10
Chabab Mohammédia
0.80

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
0.90
Chabab Mohammédia
0.87

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
70%
Mouloudia Oujda or Chabab Mohammédia
68%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
62%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
14%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
63%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
26%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
8%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
57%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
21%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
56%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.80 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
38%
level
32%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
30%

Mouloudia Oujda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Chabab Mohammédia

Mouloudia Oujda and Chabab Mohammédia drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Honneur Stadium in Oujda.