Chabab Mohammédia 2–4 Mouloudia Oujda

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Mouloudia Oujda

11/23/2025

Botola 2 · Round 9Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia44%

×Draw27%

Mouloudia Oujda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchMouloudia Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.06

Chabab Mohammédia

1.36

Mouloudia Oujda

1.06

Chabab Mohammédia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

0.90

1.23

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.30

Mouloudia Oujda

0.90

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.23

Mouloudia Oujda

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

71%

Chabab Mohammédia or Mouloudia Oujda

73%

Draw or Mouloudia Oujda

56%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

20%

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

74%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

39%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

16%

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

65%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

29%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

60%

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.30 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.90 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

44%

level

27%

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

29%

Chabab Mohammédia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chabab Mohammédia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff