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Chabab Mohammédia vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
12/10/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 11Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia33%
×Draw29%
Mouloudia Oujda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.07
Mouloudia Oujda
1.19

Mouloudia Oujda creates 11% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
Mouloudia Oujda
1.28

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
61%
Chabab Mohammédia or Mouloudia Oujda
71%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
67%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
13%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
66%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
29%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
9%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
70%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
33%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
46%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
33%
level
29%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
39%

Mouloudia Oujda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab Mohammédia 1–0 Mouloudia Oujda

Chabab Mohammédia beat Mouloudia Oujda 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.