Mouloudia Oujda 0–0 Chabab Mohammédia

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chabab Mohammédia

4/20/2024

Botola Pro · Round 26Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda44%

×Draw29%

Chabab Mohammédia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchChabab Mohammédia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.90

Mouloudia Oujda

1.23

Chabab Mohammédia

0.90

Mouloudia Oujda creates 37% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.17

creates per match

0.63

1.17

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Chabab Mohammédia

0.63

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Chabab Mohammédia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

73%

Mouloudia Oujda or Chabab Mohammédia

71%

Draw or Chabab Mohammédia

56%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

19%

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

71%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

35%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

13%

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

59%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

23%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

62%

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

44%

level

29%

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

27%

Mouloudia Oujda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff