Molde 2–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stromsgodset

L. James 82'

M. Ellingsen 70'

V. Ingimundarson 86'

10/25/2020

Eliteserien · Round 22Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Molde61%

×Draw20%

Stromsgodset19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.09

Molde

2.12

Stromsgodset

1.09

Molde creates 94% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

2.02

creates per match

0.97

1.22

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Molde

2.02

Stromsgodset

0.97

allows per match

Molde

1.22

Stromsgodset

2.22

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more

Stromsgodset+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Molde or draw

81%

Molde or Stromsgodset

80%

Draw or Stromsgodset

39%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

37%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

88%

Molde 2+ goals

62%

Molde 3+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

66%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

30%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

76%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Stromsgodset defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.12

Stromsgodset attack 0.97 + Molde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Molde scores more

61%

level

20%

Stromsgodset scores more

19%

Molde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Eikrem

Molde · M

8.3

Match Events

56'

H. Stenevik← A. Nyhagen

66'

E. Andersen← M. Moström

66'

L. James← O. Omoijuanfo

70'

M. Ellingsen↳ M. Eikrem

78'

V. Ingimundarson← H. Stengel

78'

A. Leifsson← S. Hanssen

80'

M. Bolly← O. Brynhildsen

82'

L. James↳ M. Eikrem

86'

V. Ingimundarson↳ L. Salvesen

90+2'

T. Christensen← M. Eikrem

90+2'

A. Stenseth← K. Tokstad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeStromsgodset

Overview

47%Possession53%

20Total Shots11

4Corners7

8Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots11

8On Target5

4Off Target2

8Blocked4

16Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

471Total Passes514

375Accurate Passes403

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls15

0Offsides1