Molde 2–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

M. Pedersen 90+4'

L. James 77'

8/22/2020

Eliteserien · Round 15Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Molde61%

×Draw21%

ODD Ballklubb18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.06

Molde

2.10

ODD Ballklubb

1.06

Molde creates 98% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

1.97

creates per match

0.94

1.18

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Molde

1.97

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Molde

1.18

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.24scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Molde or draw

82%

Molde or ODD Ballklubb

79%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

39%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

38%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

88%

Molde 2+ goals

62%

Molde 3+ goals

35%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

29%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

77%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.97 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.10

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Molde defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Molde scores more

61%

level

21%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

18%

Molde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Linde

Molde · G

7.9

Match Events

39'

Elbasan Rashani

61'

Magnus Eikrem

70'

M. Bolly← O. Brynhildsen

71'

F. Jørgensen← K. Jakobsen

77'

Leke James

77'

L. James

79'

O. Omoijuanfo← L. James

79'

T. Christensen← M. Eikrem

79'

K. Haugen← J. Kitolano

90+4'

M. Pedersen↳ M. Ellingsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeODD

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots11

8Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target5

5Off Target1

5Blocked5

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

404Total Passes494

308Accurate Passes407

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4