Molde 0–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

F. Nordkvelle 36'

4/29/2018

Eliteserien · Round 7Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Molde61%

×Draw21%

ODD Ballklubb18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.05

Molde

2.10

ODD Ballklubb

1.05

Molde creates 100% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

1.98

creates per match

0.98

1.13

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Molde

1.98

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Molde

1.13

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.21scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Molde or draw

82%

Molde or ODD Ballklubb

79%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

39%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

38%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

88%

Molde 2+ goals

62%

Molde 3+ goals

35%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

28%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

77%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.98 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.10

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Molde defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Molde scores more

61%

level

21%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

18%

Molde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

V. Forren

Molde · D

8.0

Match Events

36'

F. Nordkvelle↳ M. Broberg

44'

Stian Gregersen

46'

P. Strand← T. Amang

62'

I. Wadji← C. Telo

68'

T. Lauritsen← M. Broberg

80'

D. Chima← M. Normann

87'

B. Njie← E. Rashani

88'

V. Bergan← M. Kaasa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeODD

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots9

15Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots9

7On Target3

9Off Target2

8Blocked4

12Inside Box5

12Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

431Total Passes335

369Accurate Passes234

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Molde vs ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Molde 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 29, 2018.

Goals: F. Nordkvelle (36').

Molde controlled possession (58%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Molde vs ODD Ballklubb