Molde 0–1 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kristiansund BK

W. Igor 21'

5/16/2025

Eliteserien · Round 7Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Molde58%

×Draw22%

Kristiansund BK20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.08

Molde

1.99

Kristiansund BK

1.08

Molde creates 84% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

1.98

creates per match

0.97

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Molde

1.98

Kristiansund BK

0.97

allows per match

Molde

1.20

Kristiansund BK

2.00

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Molde+0.20scores more

Kristiansund BK+0.03on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Molde or draw

80%

Molde or Kristiansund BK

78%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

42%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

35%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

86%

Molde 2+ goals

59%

Molde 3+ goals

32%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

66%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

29%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

74%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.20 · 22 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.98 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kristiansund BK attack 0.97 + Molde defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Molde scores more

58%

level

22%

Kristiansund BK scores more

20%

Molde at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Eikrem

Molde · F

8.6

Match Events

21'

W. Igor

46'

E. Hestad← H. Stenevik

46'

V. Berisha← S. Granaas

74'

I. Jelicic← R. Alte

74'

S. Kilen← A. Ndour

80'

F. Gulbrandsen← K. Eriksen

82'

Rezan Corlu

85'

Fredrik Gulbrandsen

88'

H. Haugen← D. Tufekcic

90'

F. Flex← R. Corlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeKristiansund

Overview

65%Possession35%

21Total Shots7

2.28Expected Goals (xG)0.42

7Corners0

4Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots7

7On Target2

12Off Target4

2Blocked1

16Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

709Total Passes401

628Accurate Passes319

89%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4