Kristiansund BK 0–4 Molde: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Molde

K. Eriksen 60'

O. Brynhildsen 48'

E. Haugan 23'

M. Eikrem 7'

9/18/2024

Eliteserien · Round 19Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Kristiansund BK33%

×Draw25%

Molde42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.51

Kristiansund BK

1.31

Molde

1.51

Molde creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

1.29

creates per match

1.38

1.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.29

Molde

1.38

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.65

Molde

1.33

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Molde+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

58%

Kristiansund BK or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

67%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

14%

Molde wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

73%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

38%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

14%

Molde 1+ goals

78%

Molde 2+ goals

44%

Molde 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

44%

Molde (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Molde away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + Molde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Molde attack 1.38 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

33%

level

25%

Molde scores more

42%

Molde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Eriksen

Molde · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

M. Eikrem↳ O. Brynhildsen

23'

E. Haugan↳ C. Øyvann

27'

Kristian EriksenGoal cancelled

46'

M. Enggård← E. Breivik

48'

O. Brynhildsen↳ K. Eriksen

54'

David Tufekcic

57'

W. Igor← R. Alte

57'

I. Jeličić← D. Tufekcic

57'

C. Aasbak← M. Rakneberg

57'

A. Hopmark← D. Ulvestad

60'

K. Eriksen↳ K. Haugen

63'

H. Stenevik← K. Haugen

63'

E. Hestad← M. Kaasa

72'

F. Ihler← M. Eikrem

76'

O. Sivertsen← H. Sjåtil

78'

Kristian Stromland Lien

80'

N. Ødegård← M. Linnes

84'

Oskar Siira Sivertsen

89'

Isak Helstad Amundsen

90+2'

Igor Jeličić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundMolde

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots17

0.96Expected Goals (xG)2.27

2Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target7

5Off Target6

1Blocked4

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

429Total Passes565

351Accurate Passes487

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 0–4 Molde

Molde beat Kristiansund BK 4-0 in Eliteserien on September 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Eikrem (7'), E. Haugan (23'), O. Brynhildsen (48'), K. Eriksen (60').

Molde controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.

Kristiansund BK vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 0–4 Molde