Molde score first in only 15% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
Molde46%
Brann31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Molde creates 23% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Molde ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Molde at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches
Brann away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Molde attack 2.00 + Brann defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84
Brann attack 1.81 + Molde defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Molde at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Molde have scored in 10 games running
- Brann have scored in 8 games running
- Both teams score in 77% of Molde’s matches
- Brann score first in only 33% of matches
- Brann raise their game against the top half — 53% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower
- 69% of Molde’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesPlaying styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Viking
Bodo/Glimt
TromsoBrann
Sandefjord
Valerenga
Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FFMolde
Ham-Kam
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Bryne
Stromsgodset
HaugesundIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Molde host Brann on Saturday, 18 July 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the Eliteserien 2026/2027 season.
Molde face Brann (Eliteserien)
Eliteserien returns with Molde hosting Brann. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Molde host Brann at Aker Stadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.