Brann 0–3 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Molde

V. Berisha 72'

K. Eriksen 48'

F. Gulbrandsen 11'

5/29/2025

Eliteserien · Round 15Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Brann53%

×Draw23%

Molde24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.15

Brann

1.82

Molde

1.15

Brann creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.25

creates per match

1.37

0.93

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Brann

2.25

Molde

1.37

allows per match

Brann

0.93

Molde

1.40

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Brann-0.14scores less

Molde-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brann or draw

76%

Brann or Molde

77%

Draw or Molde

47%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

30%

Molde wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

84%

Brann 2+ goals

54%

Brann 3+ goals

27%

Molde 1+ goals

68%

Molde 2+ goals

32%

Molde 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

69%

Molde (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 9 matches

Molde away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Molde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Molde attack 1.37 + Brann defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brann scores more

53%

level

23%

Molde scores more

24%

Brann at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Hestad

Molde

8.3

Match Events

10'

S. Kabini← K. Haugen

11'

F. Gulbrandsen↳ E. Hestad

32'

39'

45+3'

45'

46'

S. Granaas← M. Eikrem

48'

K. Eriksen↳ S. Kabini

54'

Felix Horn Myhre

55'

Jacob Karlstrøm

59'

V. Berisha← F. Gulbrandsen

60'

Samukelo Kabini

62'

T. Pedersen← D. De Roeve

62'

U. Mathisen← M. Sande

62'

L. Remmem← E. Gudmundsson

72'

V. Berisha↳ E. Hestad

76'

77'

82'

82'

82'

M. Hansen← A. Heggebo

83'

Veton Berisha

83'

Veton BerishaCard upgrade

84'

Sondre Milian Granaas

89'

Mads Hansen

90+1'

Mads Enggård

90+1'

Mads Enggård

90'

Mads EnggårdRed card cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannMolde

Overview

72%Possession28%

19Total Shots4

1.51Expected Goals (xG)0.68

9Corners0

9Fouls22

Shots

19Total Shots4

7On Target3

4Off Target0

8Blocked1

15Inside Box3

4Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

599Total Passes239

512Accurate Passes153

85%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls22

4Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards2

3Offsides0

Eliteserien: Brann 0–3 Molde

Molde beat Brann 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 29, 2025.

Goals: F. Gulbrandsen (11'), K. Eriksen (48'), V. Berisha (72').

Brann controlled possession (72%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Brann 0–3 Molde