Brann 1–3 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Molde

F. Knudsen 36'

E. Hestad 72'

M. Eikrem 70'

K. Eriksen 60'

5/26/2024

Eliteserien · Round 10Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Brann52%

×Draw23%

Molde25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.20

Brann

1.82

Molde

1.20

Brann creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.24

creates per match

1.37

1.03

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Brann

2.24

Molde

1.37

allows per match

Brann

1.03

Molde

1.40

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Brann-0.24scores less

Molde-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brann or draw

75%

Brann or Molde

77%

Draw or Molde

48%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

29%

Molde wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

84%

Brann 2+ goals

54%

Brann 3+ goals

27%

Molde 1+ goals

70%

Molde 2+ goals

34%

Molde 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

67%

Molde (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

Molde away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.24 + Molde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Molde attack 1.37 + Brann defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brann scores more

52%

level

23%

Molde scores more

25%

Brann at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Heltne Nilsen

Brann · M

7.6

Match Events

36'

F. Knudsen↳ N. Castro

46'

T. Pedersen← J. Sery Larsen

54'

Isak Helstad Amundsen

59'

59'

60'

68'

70'

M. Eikrem↳ H. Stenevik

72'

E. Hestad↳ E. Breivik

74'

A. Hagelskjær← C. Øyvann

74'

M. Møller Dæhli← M. Eikrem

82'

J. Soltvedt← R. Kristiansen

82'

A. Heggebø← N. Castro

82'

M. Linnes← E. Breivik

86'

S. Kartum← O. Didrik Blomberg

88'

Valdemar Lund

90+7'

Sivert Heltne Nilsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannMolde

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots14

7Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target7

6Off Target3

5Blocked4

12Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

461Total Passes229

359Accurate Passes134

78%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Brann 1 – 3 Molde

Molde beat Brann 3-1 in Eliteserien on May 26, 2024.

Goals: F. Knudsen (36'), K. Eriksen (60'), M. Eikrem (70'), E. Hestad (72').

Brann controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Brann 1 – 3 Molde