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Molde vs Brann — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brann
Brann
F. Gulbrandsen 29' (pen)
3/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Molde42%
×Draw23%
Brann34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.69
Brann
1.50

Molde creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Molde
1.88
Brann
1.75

allows per match

Molde
1.25
Brann
1.50

finishing

Molde+0.00on par
Brann+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Molde or draw
66%
Molde or Brann
77%
Draw or Brann
58%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
22%
Brann wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
82%
Molde 2+ goals
50%
Molde 3+ goals
24%
Brann 1+ goals
78%
Brann 2+ goals
44%
Brann 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
55%
Brann (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Brann away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.88 + Brann defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Brann attack 1.75 + Molde defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Molde scores more
42%
level
23%
Brann scores more
34%

Molde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
29'
F. GulbrandsenPenalty
32'
46'
N. Wassberg← S. Nilsen
46'
F. Gulbrandsen← L. Juberg-Hovland
46'
M. M. Daehli← M. Linnes
46'
K. Haugen← J. Bakke
46'
C. Oyvann← A. Roaldsoy
46'
J. Karlstrom← A. Posiadala
60'
E. Kornvig
60'
O. Blomberg← M. Warming
67'
I. H. Amundsen← M. Solheim
74'
A. Heggebo← M. Hellan
74'
N. Odegard← G. Kjolstad Nyheim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molde vs Brann

Molde beat Brann 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 19, 2024.

Goals: F. Gulbrandsen (29' pen).

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.