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Molde vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brann
Brann
S. Granaas 90'
M. Dyngeland 75' (OG)
O. Spiten-Nysaeter 65'
E. Breivik 54'
11/22/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Molde37%
×Draw25%
Brann38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.45
Brann
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Molde
1.47
Brann
1.55

allows per match

Molde
1.36
Brann
1.43

finishing

Molde+0.70scores more
Brann+0.31scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Molde or draw
62%
Molde or Brann
75%
Draw or Brann
63%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
18%
Brann wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
77%
Molde 2+ goals
42%
Molde 3+ goals
18%
Brann 1+ goals
77%
Brann 2+ goals
43%
Brann 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
50%
Brann (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Brann away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.47 + Brann defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Brann attack 1.55 + Molde defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Molde scores more
37%
level
25%
Brann scores more
38%

Brann at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
E. BreivikMoldeMolde · F
8.3

Match Events

26'
Birk Risa
45'
Neraysho Kasanwirjo
46'
F. Gulbrandsen← G. Nyheim
54'
E. Breivik
57'
N. Holm← B. Finne
60'
Jacob Christensen
61'
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
65'
O. Spiten-Nysaeter↳ E. Breivik
69'
I. Amundsen← O. Spiten-Nysaeter
69'
M. Eikrem← C. Zady
69'
A. Roaldsoy← J. Christensen
72'
M. Hansen← U. Mathisen
72'
F. Myhre← E. Kornvig
72'
L. Remmem← N. Castro
75'
M. DyngelandOwn goal
82'
S. Granaas← M. Daehli
90'
S. Granaas↳ F. Gulbrandsen

Possession

42%Molde

Shots

9Molde

Pass accuracy

48%Molde

Statistics

MoldeBrann
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots8
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.03
1Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots8
5On Target2
3Off Target3
1Blocked3
5Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
437Total Passes618
342Accurate Passes526
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Molde vs Brann

Molde beat Brann 4-0 in Eliteserien on November 22, 2025.

Goals: E. Breivik (54'), O. Spiten-Nysaeter (65'), M. Dyngeland (75' o.g.), S. Granaas (90').

Brann controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.