Modena 1–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone

A. Palumbo 42'

E. Darboe 55'

1/18/2025

Serie B · Round 22Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Modena40%

×Draw24%

Frosinone36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.51

Modena

1.60

Frosinone

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.83

1.19

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Modena

1.25

Frosinone

1.83

allows per match

Modena

1.19

Frosinone

1.95

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Modena-0.39scores less

Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Modena or draw

64%

Modena or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

60%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

20%

Frosinone wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

80%

Modena 2+ goals

47%

Modena 3+ goals

22%

Frosinone 1+ goals

78%

Frosinone 2+ goals

44%

Frosinone 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

53%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 7 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.25 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Modena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Modena scores more

40%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

36%

Modena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Palumbo

Modena · F

8.2

Match Events

27'

Anthony Oyono

42'

A. Palumbo↳ C. Cauz

46'

G. Bracaglia← F. Tsadjout

55'

E. Darboe↳ G. Ambrosino

65'

T. Begić← I. Koutsoupias

66'

G. Defrel← L. Magnino

66'

A. Di Pardo← T. Battistella

66'

M. Cotali← M. Caldara

78'

G. Kvernadze← G. Ambrosino

79'

K. Bozhanaj← G. Caso

81'

M. Cichella← E. Darboe

85'

F. Abiuso← E. Duca

89'

Antonio Palumbo

90+2'

Kleis Bozhanaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaFrosinone

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots5

11Corners2

9Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots5

3On Target2

14Off Target2

2Blocked1

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box0

Passing

69%Possession31%

581Total Passes268

514Accurate Passes195

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0