Frosinone 2–1 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Modena

G. Caso 68'

R. Insigne 64'

L. Strizzolo 88'

1/14/2023

Serie B · Round 20Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw26%

Modena28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Frosinone

1.45

Modena

1.07

Frosinone creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.81

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Frosinone

1.81

Modena

0.93

allows per match

Frosinone

1.21

Modena

1.09

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.36scores more

Modena+0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

72%

Frosinone or Modena

74%

Draw or Modena

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Modena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

42%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Modena 1+ goals

66%

Modena 2+ goals

29%

Modena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Modena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Modena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.81 + Modena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Modena attack 0.93 + Frosinone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

26%

Modena scores more

28%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Tremolada

Modena · M

7.5

Match Events

18'

Karlo Lulić

33'

Sergio Kalaj

43'

Gennaro Borrelli

46'

R. Insigne← G. Borrelli

46'

G. Caso← A. Oyono

57'

N. Bonfanti← D. Diaw

57'

L. Tremolada← R. Giovannini

64'

R. Insigne

66'

L. Strizzolo← D. Falcinelli

66'

L. Magnino← M. Gargiulo

68'

G. Caso↳ S. Mulattieri

80'

E. Duca← F. Gerli

82'

A. Oliveri← L. Garritano

82'

L. Moro← S. Mulattieri

88'

L. Strizzolo↳ L. Tremolada

90+2'

I. Monterisi← G. Caso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneModena

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots12

7Corners8

17Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target4

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

426Total Passes449

336Accurate Passes363

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls7

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1