Frosinone 2–2 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Modena

G. Calo 50'

I. Koutsoupias 9'

Y. Massolin 89'

F. Zampano 56'

11/8/2025

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw26%

Modena28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.07

Frosinone

1.46

Modena

1.07

Frosinone creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.81

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Frosinone

1.81

Modena

0.93

allows per match

Frosinone

1.21

Modena

1.11

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.36scores more

Modena+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

72%

Frosinone or Modena

74%

Draw or Modena

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

23%

Modena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

43%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Modena 1+ goals

66%

Modena 2+ goals

29%

Modena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Modena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Modena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.11 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.81 + Modena defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Modena attack 0.93 + Frosinone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

26%

Modena scores more

28%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Calo

Frosinone · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

I. Koutsoupias↳ G. Kvernadze

50'

G. Calo↳ I. Koutsoupias

55'

N. Pyyhtia← L. Magnino

55'

G. Defrel← F. Di Mariano

56'

F. Zampano

63'

Giacomo Calò

67'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

67'

G. Beyuku← L. Zanimacchia

67'

P. Mendes← E. Gliozzi

68'

M. Cichella← B. L. Kone

73'

N. Corrado← G. Kvernadze

77'

Y. Massolin← A. Sersanti

85'

G. Cittadini← F. Ghedjemis

85'

E. Vergani← J. Oyono

89'

Leandro Chichizola

89'

Y. Massolin↳ G. Defrel

90+8'

Massimo Zilli

90+2'

Gabriele Bracaglia

90+1'

Gady BeyukuGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneModena

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots21

0.77Expected Goals (xG)1.52

5Corners8

13Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots21

4On Target6

3Off Target11

1Blocked4

4Inside Box16

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

266Total Passes370

190Accurate Passes311

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Serie B: Frosinone 2–2 Modena

Frosinone and Modena drew 2-2 in Serie B on November 8, 2025.

Goals: I. Koutsoupias (9'), G. Calo (50'), F. Zampano (56'), Y. Massolin (89').

Modena controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 2–2 Modena